Bullish on this big emerging theme for next 12 months: Nilesh Shah, Kotak AMC

Bullish on this big emerging theme for next 12 months: Nilesh Shah, Kotak AMC thumbnail
If we are lucky, sensible and are planning for future, then Samvat 2075 returns could be reasonably good, Nilesh Shah, MD, Kotak AMC, tells ET Now. Shah is betting big on opportunities arising out of US-China tariff war.

Edited excerpts:

What do you think the next Samvat is likely to be? Is it going to be better than this year?

We need to be lucky, sensible and planning for the next Samvat.

Luck in the form of lower oil prices. If oil price goes higher from current level, it could have impact on next Samvat’s return. But if oil price drops from current level, then next Samvat will certainly be more prosperous.

In terms of sensibility, we have to vote for a government which is stable and committed to economic reforms. If we indeed get a stable government with economic reforms as an agenda, next Samvat will be prosperous. If we get a coalition government not committed to economic reforms, then next Samvat’s returns will be impacted.

The third factor is that we have to plan for future. Today morning MSCI has announced that A share indices weightage will increase from 5% to 20% in MSCI EM indices. From MSCI emerging market indices, it is going to become MSCI China and other market indices. As China’s weight jumps from 28% to 50%, India’s weight will correspondingly come down and FIIs’ allocation to India will also start dwindling.

If we do not take any corrective action, there could be potential outflow of almost $100 billion over next couple of years.

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